Geopolitical Risk, Brent Volatility, and Oil Import Flow Dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia

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Diterbitkan: Jun 30, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.51413/jisea.Vol7.Iss1.2026.91-106
Kata Kunci:
geopolitical risk, Brent volatility, oil import flows, Indonesia, EGARCH, ARDL, dynamic ARDL, procurement

Isi Artikel Utama

Deffrensia A W E P Fernandes
PT Pertamina (Persero)
Eka Puspitawati
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Pertamina, Jakarta, Indonesia
Suhari Pranyoto
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Pertamina, Jakarta, Indonesia
Feriansyah
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Pertamina, Jakarta, Indonesia
Mochammad Zhulmi Danovanz Hidanasukha
Department of Information Systems, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, Indonesia

Abstrak

Geopolitical risk can transmit to oil-importing economies through heightened market uncertainty and procurement-flow adjustment. This study tests two hypotheses: geopolitical risk (GPR) is positively associated with monthly Brent conditional volatility, and Brent volatility is negatively associated with Indonesia's oil and petroleum-product import volume. Monthly data from January 2014 to April 2026 are combined with daily Brent prices. Brent volatility is estimated using EGARCH(1,1), while dynamic relationships are assessed with ARDL-HAC models, bounds testing, long-run multipliers, and deterministic Dynamic ARDL simulations. H1 is supported: GPR has a contemporaneous coefficient of 0.0284 (p = 0.001) and a long-run multiplier of 0.0415. H2 receives marginal and delayed support: contemporaneous and first-lag effects are insignificant, while the second lag is -24,030 tons per volatility point (p = 0.078). Under a +1 SD GPR shock, volatility peaks at +1.81 points in month 3 and import volume reaches its largest decline in month 4 (-68,239 tons); the historical-extreme scenario raises these deviations to +4.33 points and about -163,220 tons. The results show strong transmission from geopolitical risk to oil-market volatility but a weaker and lagged response in Indonesia's import volume.


 


 

Rincian Artikel

Cara Mengutip
Fernandes, D. A. W. E. P., Puspitawati, E., Pranyoto, S. ., Feriansyah, & Hidanasukha, M. Z. D. . (2026). Geopolitical Risk, Brent Volatility, and Oil Import Flow Dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of International Relations on Energy Affairs, 7(1), 91–106. https://doi.org/10.51413/jisea.Vol7.Iss1.2026.91-106
Terbitan
Vol 7 No 1 (2026)
Bagian
Articles

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